Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
